Late last month BP eleased its 2017 energy outlook, forecasting what energy markets will look like over the next 20 years. The 104-page report lays out a lot of numbers, but Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, has a few takeaways to share.
Smith says to take the report with a grain of salt. Instead of focusing on the minutia of the numbers, he says to look at the broader picture.
“This report is very useful for identifying trends over the next 10, 20 years to really get an idea of where energy can be going,” Smith says.
Smith says the report looks at five main energy trends we can expect by 2035:
“Two-thirds of the increase in global energy consumption by 2035 is expected to come from people gaining access to electricity. You have currently 1 billion people without access to electricity. … What we’re likely to see is a huge ramp up as people just simply gain access to electricity over the next few decades.”
“[It’s] really being driven on by costs. As we see the cost drop of wind power, of solar power, we’re really going to see that coming through. We’re already seeing it in Texas, but on a global scale we will see that too.”
3. Energy efficiency
“[The report] really highlights the need for energy efficiency and how it plays the key role in the globe of really managing to keep energy consumption low. … Through this energy efficiency, even though the world GDP is supposed to double by 2035, energy demand is only expected to increase by 30 percent because of this extreme focus on energy efficiency.”
4. Electric Cars
“Technology is going to be that one thing that is going to be so disruptive over the next couple of decades. But this report says that we expect to see electric cars increase from about 1.2 million last year or in 2015 to 100 million by 2035.”
5. Fossil Fuels
“We are still going to be reliant on fossil fuels by 2035. We’re still going to get 75 percent of our energy needs from oil, natural gas and coal.”