Despite A Record 2019 Crime Rate, Mexicans Have Reason To Hope For A Bright Future

Demographic and technological trends make it likely that crime rates will fall in the coming years.

By Joy DiazFebruary 3, 2020 2:33 pm

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s first year in office was a terrible year for public safety and deaths in Mexico. 2019 was the deadliest year since Mexico began keeping track in 1997. But AMLO, as the president is known, still appears to enjoy the support of most Mexicans, and there are several trends that indicate crime could go down over time.

Alejandro Hope is a security analyst based in Mexico City, and a guest lecturer at the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. He says the crime rate in Mexico has a lot to do with current demographics.

“Mexico is, right now, experiencing a youth bulge,” Hope says. “The number of males between the ages of 15 and 29 is the largest cohort we have ever seen.”

But he says that will soon change because Mexico’s population is aging. And he says an aging population means less crime committed by young men.

What you’ll hear in this segment:

– Why changing demographics could mean lower crime rates in Mexico in the near future

– How much of the drug trade is likely to move online, and reduce criminal violence

– What massive amounts of crime data will mean for public policymaking


Written by Shelly Brisbin.