From NPR:
In the early hours of Friday, floods swept across Texas Hill Country. The Guadalupe River rose 26 feet within 45 minutes, according to state officials.
More than 50 people died in the floods, with 43 of the confirmed deaths occuring in Kerr County. Frantic search efforts continue for 27 girls from a local Christian summer camp — Camp Mystic — who remain missing, as well as other missing individuals. Officials added that more than 850 people have been rescued, including over 100 airlifted from the region.
On Friday, when asked why the summer camps in the area were not evacuated, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official, said, “I can’t answer that. I don’t know.”
On Wednesday the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activated state emergency response resources, saying there were “increased threats of flooding in parts of West and Central Texas.” Swift water rescue teams, along with other types of rescue equipment, were moved to the area because some modeling predicted high levels of rainfall.
“But listen, everybody got the forecast from the National Weather Service….It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” said Texas Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd on Friday.
U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, who was in the area for the July 4th celebrations, asked for people to focus on the ongoing rescue work. “I’d just [ask] everybody like, pause, take a breath for the recriminations and the Monday morning quarterbacking,” he said on Saturday. “Let’s focus on finding those who can be found, then we can always assess what we need to do later, going forward.”
Kristi Noem, secretary of Homeland Security, said on Saturday afternoon, “for decades, for years, everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict.”
“I do carry your concerns back to the federal government, to President Trump and and we will do all we can to fix those kinds of things that that may have felt like a failure to you and to your community members,” she said, adding that Trump is “working to upgrade the technologies that have been neglected.” Some have raised questions about whether cuts to the National Weather Service and other federal emergency management agencies impacted the ability to provide accurate weather warnings.
NPR has compiled a timeline of when local, state and federal officials posted warnings on social media as well as the timeline of events as presented by local officials.
Wednesday, July 2:
The Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) announced that it was activating state emergency response resources because of the threat of flooding.
At 4:41 p.m., early hints of severe weather came in a post on X by the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio that said: “scattered moderate to heavy showers continue to develop and expand to the Hill Country.”
Thursday, July 3:
At 9:47 a.m. Texas Division of Emergency Management posted on X weather guidance in both English and Spanish, informing followers about what to do in a flood, adding: “As we head into the holiday weekend and the flood threat in West & Central TX continues, stay weather aware!”
At some point in the morning, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick later said at a press conference, the TDEM Region 6 Assistance Chief had “personally contacted the judges and mayors in that area and notified them all of potential flooding.” He said it was unclear exactly where in the region the storm would hit.
“The message was sent,” Patrick said, “It is up to the local counties and mayors under the law to evacuate, if they feel a need. That information was passed along.”
At 3:35 p.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio announced a flood watch on X, saying “pockets of heavy rain are expected and may result in flooding.” A flood watch is used when the weather conditions make a flood possible but it does not mean a flood will occur.
Friday, July 4:
At 12:42 a.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio posted on X upgrading its flood watch to a flood warning for part of the impacted area. In a post from 2:14 a.m., that area was expanded. A flood warning occurs when flooding is imminent or already happening.
At 1:26 a.m., the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center said “flash flooding likely overnight with significant impacts possible.” This message was posted on X a minute later.
Around 3:30 a.m. the Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was out for an early morning jog along the Guadalupe River and saw “not a drop of rain,” according to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who recounted his conversation with the city manager. Rice added that he left around 4 a.m. when “there was very light rain…We did not see any signs of the river rising at that time.”
At 4:06 a.m. the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio posted on X: “A very dangerous flash flooding event is ongoing.” It ended: “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”
Then, at 5:15 a.m. the National Weather Service San Angelo posted on X that there was a flash flood emergency. The Austin/San Antonio office posted on its X account about the emergency at 5:23 a.m. This type of alert is “exceedingly rare” and used when there is a “severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage,” according to the National Weather Service.
Between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m., the Guadalupe River surged, with water levels rapidly rising as much as 30 feet, according to Rep. Roy. Local TV footage showed the empty foundations of houses, where everything else had been swept away.
Kerrville City Manager Rice said he started getting calls around 5 a.m. about the flooding. He said upstream of the city two branches converge into the Guadalupe River and that both forks had received more rain than expected. “It was about seven feet or so on the south fork, and within a matter of minutes, it was up to 29 feet,” Rice recounted later on Friday.
After the 1987 flood, alarms were installed along the river. However, Rice said that he believes those are south of Kerrville. “There [are] not alarms everywhere on the river,” he said.
He added that it is a very hard decision when to issue evacuation orders. “There’s a balance between do you evacuate and put chaos on the road and potentially risk people getting stuck on a road? This is hill country…There’s a lot of low water crossings,” he said. “A lot of our operations plans — especially with these camps, that is — the plan is sometimes shelter in place to get them to those known high grounds and then wait for rescue.”
At 6:16 a.m., the City of Kerrville’s Police Department posted on its Facebook page its first warning about the weather, noting that it’s a “life threatening event” and “anyone near the Guadalupe River needs to move to higher ground now.” Kerr County Sheriff posted on its Facebook page for the first time about the flooding at 6:32 a.m.
At 7:22 a.m., the City Hall of Kerrville posted on Facebook: “Much needed rain swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today’s scheduled July 4th events. Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings. Kerrville Police and Fire Department personnel are currently assessing emergency needs.” At 7:33 a.m. it posted about road closures due to flooding. At 8:32 a.m. it posted: “If you live along the Guadalupe River, please move to higher ground immediately.”
Kidd — the Texas Emergency Management Chief — said the boats and other equipment that was pre-positioned started responding immediately, although he did not specify at what time. “Those were put immediately into use as soon as the rain fell and the 911 calls started coming in. They were already here,” he said.
Speaking on Friday, Lt. Gov. Patrick said there were 14 helicopters, 12 drones, nine rescue teams as well as “swimmers in the water rescuing adults and children out of trees.” He said there were 400 to 500 people on the ground helping with the rescue effort.
Search and rescue operations continued through the night, according to Kerrville City Manager Rice, who said the teams were relying a lot on helicopters and using specialized equipment that detect heat sources to help find stranded people.
Saturday, July 5:
At around 8 a.m. on Saturday, Rice said “boots on the ground operations” were able to begin. The teams started southwest of Hunt, TX — southwest of Camp Mystic — and “these folks will be traveling very difficult terrain…and we’re going to start getting information,” he said at a press conference on Saturday morning.
Officials said that more than 1,000 local, state and federal personnel were on the ground helping with the rescue operation.
On Saturday afternoon, Gov. Greg Abbott said one word has been used more than any during this natural disaster: Prayer. “All we know is that prayer does work,” he said.
