Blue dots in a red sea: How some Texas Democrats survived a GOP onslaught

Texas House Democratic incumbents managed to prevail in the 2024 election despite the state’s red wave. Gerrymandering and being an incumbent helped.

By Caroline Love, KERA NewsNovember 26, 2024 9:31 am,

From KERA News:

Texas still has a few blue dots scattered across its political map — often an incumbent state representative who managed to survive the state’s red wave in the election. And those Democrats in those districts had some things in their favor that made a difference at the polls.

Most Texas voters sent their current state representative — both Democrats and Republicans — back for another term.

Incumbents have a leg up when running for reelection. Janet Johnson, an associate professor of communications studies at the University of Texas at Dallas, said the candidates have name recognition.

“You see them out there,” Johnson said. “You see them at events. You see them working with the electorate.”

It’s not unusual to run into Rep. Mihaela Plesa at an event in her district, Texas House District 70. She’s one of the Democrats who survived the red wave.

On the anniversary of the mass shooting at the Allen Outlet Mall in May, she spoke at a memorial for the people killed. House District 70 includes parts of Allen.

She also participated in a candidate forum with public education group Raise Your Hand Texas in Plano in October. Several Plano ISD trustees were also present.

Plesa also knocked on a lot of people’s front doors in her district while running for election — something you’re much more likely to see from a local candidate than someone running for federal office.

She said that’s how she was able to connect with voters who leaned Republican.

“I don’t know if Collin, or Ted or Trump is ever going to come knock your door, but I’m here now asking for the vote and explaining why I think I’m the best person for the job,” Plesa said.

Thomas Gray, a political science professor at UT Dallas, said people are more likely to have a personal experience with their local or state representative.

It could be a conversation at their front door during a reelection campaign. Maybe they called their representative’s office to ask about a road that needed fixing. Or they might have seen or heard their representative on their favorite local news program.

Whatever the interaction, Gray said it makes a difference at the polls.

“All those little things, they add up to enough to give an incumbent an extra a few percentage points of the vote,” he said.

Gray also said the way the district is drawn plays a role. He said Texas House district lines were designed to favor a certain party. That way, the parties can concentrate most of their resources on the few competitive seats — like Plesa’s district. She won by 850 votes when she was first elected.

This year, she won by about 3,200 votes.

State Rep. Chris Turner from Texas House District 101 holds one of the four safely Democratic seats in Tarrant County. The other seven House seats in the county are Republican.

Turner said Tarrant County’s representation should be more evenly split. President Joe Biden won the county in 2020. And Democratic Senate candidate Collin Allred won a narrow majority there despite president-elect Donald Trump winning the county’s vote.

Turner said Tarrant County is gerrymandered to favor Republicans.

“They have so packed the minority communities into four districts in order to artificially preserve their advantage in the House,” he said.

Gerrymandering and incumbent advantage all added up to election results Gray said aren’t unusual, even though many Democrats had thought otherwise.

“Not much actually changed, but the fact that it didn’t change feels like a victory for the Republican Party because of those assumptions,” he said.

The Texas legislative session starts in January. And Plesa and Turner will have to contend with a Republican majority that’s growing more divided.

But enough of the voters in their districts decided their current Democratic representatives are more than ready for the challenge.

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