The Texas legislative session and the new presidential administration are under way, and you know what that means: Pollsters are out asking questions.
The political science department at the University of Houston’s Hobby School recently published a series of six reports that reveal Texans’ opinions on topics from how the state should spend the budget surplus to school vouchers to border security.
The sixth and final report in the batch focused on the 2026 Republican Texas U.S. Senate primary election, and how voters feel about major players in the GOP.
Mark Jones – a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School – said Texans have favorable opinions of top GOP leaders.
“Overall, 55% of Texans have a favorable opinion of President Trump, including 38% with a very favorable rating. Right next to him is Governor Greg Abbott: 56% of Texans have a favorable opinion of the governor, including 31% very favorable,” Jones said. “And right up next with both of them is Elon Musk: 53% of Texans have a favorable opinion of Musk, including 26% with a very favorable opinion of him.”
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If those numbers sound lower than expected, given the dominance of the Republican Party in state politics, Jones said Texas’ demographics and voting behavior are a little less red than the state’s election results would indicate.
“In terms of power, we’re bright red. But in terms of actual demographics and voting behavior, we’re pinker in the sense that we’re a 60-40 state,” he said. “Republicans have an advantage, but it’s not an overwhelming advantage.
“But if we flip it out to Republicans, we find that these political figures are very much more popular: 90% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump; 82% have a favorable opinion of Texas Governor Greg Abbott; 78% have a favorable opinion of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz; and for Elon Musk, 76% have a favorable opinion.”
These numbers can also give us a hint of what to expect in the next primary cycle, when Sen. John Cornyn is up for reelection.
“The glass-half-empty perspective for Cornyn is that only 28% of the possible Republican primary voters say they definitely would vote for him,” Jones said. “The glass-half-full perspective, though, is another 34% say they probably would vote to reelect Cornyn, for a total of 62%.”
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Jones’ polling also asked folks about another possible candidate who might enter that primary race – Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
“We asked the same question about Paxton, and 36% say they definitely would consider voting for Paxton. And another 32% said they might consider voting for Paxton,” Jones said. “So the two are very close. When we’re actually looking at people who are likely to vote in the Republican primary in 2026, Cornyn doesn’t have a strong advantage, but neither does Paxton.”
Of course, Jones said, that dynamic could change depending on President Trump and whether he offers an endorsement in that race when it comes around.
“The elephant in the room, though, is Donald Trump, looping back to the fact that 9 out of 10 Texas Republican primary voters have a very positive opinion of the president,” Jones said. “If Donald Trump chooses to endorse Ken Paxton, then John Cornyn is probably a dead man walking. On the other hand, if Donald Trump endorses John Cornyn, then Paxton probably doesn’t run for Senate and goes for reelection as attorney general.”
