Thousands have taken to the streets in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, to protest Sunday’s presidential election results. Incumbent president Nicolás Maduro claims he won a third term, but opposition leaders are calling fraud.
The uncertainty could have wide-reaching implications, both in Venezuela and abroad, including here in Texas where there’s a growing Venezuelan population.
Kurt Weyland is the Mike Hogg Professor in Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin. His focus is on democratization and authoritarian rule. He spoke with Texas Standard about the implications both in Venezuela and abroad. Listen to the interview above or read the transcript below.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: Well, strongman Maduro has been in power since 2013. Tell us about the opposition party and why are the election results disputed?
Kurt Weyland: The opposition party has finally come together. They’ve tried to oppose Maduro and had long standing divisions about how to do it best. And they finally came together, given that Maduro should be very, very weak.
He has ruined the economy, has driven about 8 million Venezuelans out of the country. He has governed with a corrupt group of people who are involved in drug trafficking, has committed widespread violations. So by any normal standard, he should be up for a big election defeat.
The polls showed that the opposition was way ahead, like 65 to 25. So that, of course, scared Maduro. And that’s the reason why he has clearly defrauded the public and citizenry by claiming victory. That is totally unbelievable.
Well, how have the people in Venezuela reacted to the results released by Maduro?
So there have been spontaneous crowd protests, even in the poorer areas of the city of Caracas that used to be strongholds of the Chavista movement that produced my Maduro. Now, the opposition leadership, of course, does not want to fall into the trap of crowd protests because Maduro on earlier occasions has brutally repressed broad protests.
The opposition would have a very hard time winning in the street, so the opposition leadership is essentially claiming that they can prove through the established election system that they actually won the election and produce this proof. Of course, Maduro is very unlikely to listen to any proof. He will just use brute force to stay in power.
How have those concerns been raised by the international community, as far as the legitimacy of the election – especially by the U.S.?
The international community is divided. Countries that want to get under the skin of the United States, like Russia and Cuba and China, have recognized Maduro’s completely unbelievable victory. Many countries in Latin America are always worried about interference in their country’s domestic affairs, so they have been kind of cautious and urged Maduro to produce evidence that he actually won.
Other countries have completely rejected the credibility of these elections, which, simply… I mean, there was obvious fraud. And in some sense, the role of the international community is one reason why Maduro has clung to power so much, because the international community has threatened Maduro with prosecution for his human rights violations, for his corruption, for his involvement in drug trafficking. That, of course, gives the dictator an incentive to cling to power as much as he can.
And so the role of the international community is very complicated. And the unintended effect of the legalization of international affairs has essentially induced Maduro to insist on staying in power, and has gotten the support from the military for him to stay in power.
A very tense situation, again, right now. What are the potential implications of the election results and the protests for Venezuela’s political and economic future? And of course, this goes beyond Venezuela. Could this spur another wave of mass migration?
Absolutely. I mean, 8 million people have left Venezuela since the economy has not hit rock bottom anymore. Some people have started to return.
But if there is a fraudulent election and especially if there are protests and then repression that is to be expected, I think there will be other another wave of mass emigration from Venezuela because the situation is very difficult, very severe for many common people and their hope that things could turn around with an opposition victory kept some people to stay.
But if people have to expect that the deterioration that Maduro’s dictatorship had brought will continue, I think lots of people will try to leave again.
What about the economic implications? Venezuela wasn’t always one of the poorest countries in Latin America. Quite the contrary.
So Venezuela used to be the richest country of Latin America, partly based on its oil wealth. But Hugo Chavez enacted highly state-interventionist, nationalist policies that started Venezuela’s stark economic decline.
Nicolás Maduro has essentially overseen a total collapse of the Venezuelan economy, and I think this problem will continue, especially if there is repression. Countries will feel obligated to sanction the Venezuelan regime, cut it off from international oil supplies, and then the country has to sell its oil at discount prices to his few friends in the world. And so the economy that has had a little rebound in the last couple of years is very likely to deteriorate even worse.
And now Venezuela is among the poorest countries in the region. Large share of the population lives in poverty in a country that swims in oil – a total scandal produced by this dictatorial regime.
