From Houston Public Media:
It’s the time for 2024 hurricane predictions, and warmer surface temperatures are forecasted to stir up an interesting season.
AccuWeather’s early outlook at this year’s Atlantic hurricane season was illustrated by forecasters on Wednesday as explosive, and on track to be “one of the most active in history.”
AccuWeather, a major weather forecast network, began ringing the hurricane alarm bells in late February for a blockbuster-style 2024 season, and its latest predictions echo the same concerns of a potential surge of tropical activity.
Its forecasters are predicting 20-25 named storms and 8-12 potential hurricanes that could brew in the Atlantic this year.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” Alex DaSilva, an AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster, said in a statement.
Warm surface water temperatures, which increase the potential for rapid intensification, could make for a potentially active season, according to AccuWeather.
AccuWeather forecasters analyze analog years, or past years with similar weather patterns, when they create long-range forecasts. But Space City Weather meteorologists say analogs can produce mixed results.
Last year, AccuWeather noted that the entire Florida and Southeast coasts were at a higher risk than usual, with a lower risk in the Northeast and Texas, according to Space City Weather.
While Florida was hit by Hurricane Idalia last year, the Northeast was slammed by Hurricane Lee, and southern Texas took the brunt of Tropical Storm Harold in late August, with winds pushing through the area at 20-30 miles per hour.
Space City Weather meteorologist Eric Berger said this year’s season will certainly be active, but so far unworthy to already be classified as “explosive.”
“I wouldn’t necessarily take issue with their numbers, but I think using a word like explosive is a form of fear mongering,” he said. “It’s the exact kind of thing we try to prevent.”
Space City Weather touts itself as an outlet offering hype-free weather forecasts for the Houston metropolitan area. For Berger, forecasting is a no-nonsense kind of job.
“The fact of the matter is we are expecting a busier season this year,” Berger said. “I think coastal residents including people in the greater Houston area need to be prepared for hurricane season.”
And predicting exactly when and where hurricanes will hit is no easy task.
“People just need to know that hurricane season is coming and need to be prepared,” he said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has not yet released its outlook on the upcoming hurricane season, but last year set the stage for a near-normal couple of months.
Colorado State University researchers are also predicting an “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season. Their forecast predicts a total of 23 named storms this year. Among those storms, CSU says 11 will become hurricanes, while five will become major hurricanes.
RELATED: NOAA predicts a ‘near-normal’ hurricane season for 2023
There were 19 named storms last year, but only four impacted the United States.
Lucio Vasquez contributed to this report.
