The famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, just predicted six more weeks of winter. Here in Texas, where much of the state has seen highs in the 80s this week, Beaumont’s Big Al agreed, and the armadillo Bee Cave Bob did too – but shortened the extended winter by three weeks.
So do we trust these animals? Perhaps we should consult an even more traditional source: the Farmer’s Almanac.
Brandi Addison, a Texas-based reporter for the USA Today Network, has been looking ahead to the spring forecast according to the Almanac.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: Well, real people forecasters say the rest of the winter in Texas will likely be mild. But we’re looking ahead to spring now – though it feels like spring already, we’re not there yet. When does spring officially begin?
Brandi Addison: This year it officially falls on March 20th.
And what does the Farmer’s Almanac predict for Texas this spring?
So actually, none of those animals were too far off, because it does say that we will have below-normal temperatures in April. So that’s not too far off, because most of Texas does see its last frost date between March 10th and April 10th.
So East Texas, basically Waco and northward, Panhandle, Lubbock. It doesn’t clarify necessarily how much below normal temperatures, but it is possible that the animals are right in this sense.
But heading into May, which is a really vital month for the state, especially when it comes to agriculture – I’m in Lubbock, so May rain is so essential up here for cotton and a ton of other commodities – it has forecast above-normal temperatures by at least three degrees, as well as dry temperatures.
And I’m not sure if you know, but normal temperatures by three degrees means that our average high across the state, the cumulative high for the month of May could be low 90s, mid 90s rather than upper 80s.
Yeah, that feels quite a bit different, to jump into those 90s. Your article talks about solar cycles – I don’t know that I’ve ever heard of solar cycles before. What is a solar cycle?
So it is an 11-year or maybe 12-year cycle. And we are in solar cycle 25. So for instance, the reason that those geomagnetic storms that we saw last year – northern lights, as we could see, that impacted those, was because our solar cycle is nearing its peak.
So it just means increased solar flares, which also means that inevitably we can also possibly see more northern lights, which I think is awesome.
Interesting. I got confused when I saw that, because it’s solar cycle 25 and we’re in the year 2025. But that’s just a coincidence, right? I mean, like you said, these things span more than a decade.
Yes, totally coincidental.
All right. So how do solar cycles affect our weather?
I guess there’s kind of a debate on whether it actually does. But I have seen, according to the Farmer’s Almanac, at least they did say that there could be an indirect influence on our weather.
So solar flares typically linked to space weather phenomena like I just mentioned. But there are studies that suggest that an active solar cycle, which this year it’ll peak in July, actually includes warming trends for the Earth as well.
And that kind of makes sense because solar flares, you know, bringing more heat downward to the earth. It makes sense to me. But some people are still kind of debating it.
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Well, you mentioned the northern lights, which is kind of a cool thing to see in the sky. But you also write that this solar activity can actually reduce a little bit of what we see at night.
Yeah. So it could reduce our view towards meteor showers. It can just kind of interfere, kind of block the light as far as when it comes to meteor showers.
So basically, like creating an atmospheric disturbance on the earth that affects our visibility of meteors in space.
Well, the Farmer’s Almanac is a lot of fun. How reliable is it as a weather predictor?
The Farmer’s Almanac has been around for 200 years and it claims an 80% to 85% accuracy rate. But I think that we had actually confirmed that it was closer to 50%.
Weather is just so hard to predict, too. That’s the reality of it. Especially in just like an evolving climate.
Well, you have fun with the Farmer’s Almanac, though, and I understand that beyond this article, it’s something that you kind of keep around.
Yeah. So there are day-to-day lists that you can find, and it will tell you, like, the perfect thing to do today. And some days it’ll say today is the best day to get married for whatever has to do with the lunar cycle, the weather, everything else.
And it tells you exactly what to plan on this day or to go clean up your yard on this day. And when it tells me like to go do those types of things outdoors, I do try to relate myself to that, because I think it’s just fun and it’s not causing any harm for me to do those things.
It’s also fun just like to give us content ideas, like if we see today is the best day to get married in a Farmer’s Almanac, we’ll go write a story on top places to get married in Texas, you know, so it’s easy, you know, content as well.
Planting is what the Farmer’s Almanac kind of is all about. So what does it say about when we should start our spring gardens?
So like I said, the last frost could fall later this year. I know, for instance, in Lubbock, our latest frost ever has been April 10th. That’s pretty late in the season. So we just want to be more aware of the forecast, what to expect, what to plant.
Like maybe we could start with planting more frost-resilient plants such as kale and cabbage, but maybe we wait for our tomatoes and peppers and squash until right before hand, right before their seeds actually start growing just so we don’t damage those early on.
And then, you know, after the late frost even that could benefit us and our soil just with moisture. So might want to wait this year.
