The 2026 elections in Texas still seem rather distant at the moment, but they’re coming up faster than many of us might realize. And there was a hearty reminder of that in the Wall Street Journal this week, with the headline A nasty Texas primary campaign has Republicans in a panic.
And we’re not just talking about Texas Republicans in a panic, either. The race in question: John Cornyn’s fight to retain his seat as senior senator from Texas on Capitol Hill. His opponent: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
It’s already getting personal, but this is much more than mere political spectacle. As Elizabeth Findell, who co-authored the story for the Journal, explains, the outcome might not just be a bruising intra-party showdown – it could offer Democrats their best opportunity for a big win in Texas in decades.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: Let’s talk about those stakes – bigger than just Texas. Why are Republicans at the national level so worried about Cornyn v. Paxton?
Elizabeth Findell: It’s causing a lot of concern because Paxton is leading significantly in polls for the primary, some polls showing him beating Cornyn by double digits. He’s very popular among the farthest right voters who are active in primaries.
But he comes with a lot of baggage, as all of us here in Texas know, from his various legal problems. He was impeached and then acquitted. He was under indictment for many years and then resolved it by paying a fine and having the charges be dismissed. He’s had accusations made against him by whistleblowers.
So Republicans are mostly afraid that he’s going to win the primary and then potentially be vulnerable in the general election to a Democrat. Or even if he’s not, that the amount of money they will have to spend in a competitive primary in a state this big could really hurt them in other states.
I think for a lot of folks it’s a bit of a mystery as to how Ken Paxton has not just survived some of the headlines here, but how it seems to help him with Republican voters. In the story for the Wall Street Journal, it was interesting how Cornyn was taking this tack: “I refuse to let someone of his character – or lack of character – represent Texas in the Senate.”
So it’s personal, clearly, for Cornyn. I presume it’s personal for Paxton. But still, from the outside looking in, why do all the negative headlines seem to help Paxton?
Well, I think it’s a little bit counterintuitive, but I sometimes wonder if the fact that there have been so many of them makes people a little more skeptical of them – that they feel like people are attacking him, and if people are attacking him, he must be doing something right.
And I suspect you’ve probably heard that from Republicans in Texas, as have I. And many of them also associate him with Donald Trump, who has also had many, many legal and ethical allegations made against him.
The interesting thing here, the Trump factor – you’d imagine Paxton has the president’s endorsement. Not yet?
No, not yet. Trump has held off. Some Republican leaders, again, concerned about the money that this could cost, asked Trump to endorse Cornyn before Paxton even announced his campaign, and Trump has held off. It seems as though he’s going to hold off endorsing in quite a few races.
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Give us the scenario for how this could mean a major win for Democrats in Texas.
Well, I think for Democrats, it’s probably, at least by their view, the best opportunity for them to potentially win a state. It could potentially be a cycle similar to 2018 when Beto O’Rourke came very close. And we, of course, at that time had a backlash against the Trump administration, a midterm cycle. This could be similar.
I think a big question here is with how much growth Texas has had since then, whether it’s become more conservative, because a lot of Republicans have moved here from other states, especially blue states, or whether the dynamics are the same or even more favorable to liberals.
So for Democrats, is the idea that if Paxton were to win the primary, that disaffected Cornyn supporters might support the Democrat in November to keep Paxton out?
Yes, I think the scenario here in Texas is that more moderate voters, swing voters, and also conservatives who are not particularly MAGA, would not support Paxton. Some may not vote at all in that race, or some could swing to the Democrat. So that’s one scenario.
The other, of course, is that if Republicans put $250 million or more into a primary in Texas, that would take resources away from states like Michigan, Georgia, where they’re trying to make inroads and they could potentially be hurt in other smaller states.
Who would the Democrats put up to run against the winner of the Republican primary?
You know, it’s very early to tell. Colin Allred is probably the name we’ve heard thrown out most frequently, but he hasn’t said officially whether he’ll do it. We’ve heard Beto O’Rourke’s name brought up. We’ve heard Lizzie Fletcher’s name brought up, several other people.
This week we had an official announcement from a guy named Terry Virts, who’s a former NASA astronaut, throwing his hat into the ring. He released a video that was relatively critical of the Democratic establishment, so we’ll see how much traction he’s able to get in a primary.
But I think it’s wide open at this point and could be a crowded primary field for the Democrats with a year where there’s a lot of opportunity for them.
What’s the next big moment to watch for in this race by your calculations, Elizabeth?
Oh, that’s a good question. The next big moment – I think we’re going to have to keep watching the polls.
Our understanding is that Cornyn really needs to improve his numbers. And that’s big challenge in Texas, just given the cost of advertising here and the difficulty reaching people. So I think watching the polls and, of course, watching fundraising moving forward.
