Texas is bracing for a relentless and potentially historic heatwave with hazardous conditions today through the weekend – and temperatures forecast to climb 20 degrees above normal.
John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist, joined the Standard with a look at what to expect.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: What is causing this heat wave?
John Nielsen-Gammon: Well, it’s a combination of factors, as it usually is when you get extremes. There’s been a pocket of hot air that’s been forming underneath high pressure just west of Mexico, and the jet stream is dipping south and is going to bring some of that air across northern Mexico into Texas.
And to top it off, we’ve got drought going on in northern Mexico. So as that air goes over the mountains, it’s going to heat up every day and then it’s going to descend over Texas, which will heat it up even more.
And basically each one of these days for the next few days we’re going to get yesterday’s weather from Mexico on top of whatever heat we generate in Texas.
Well, I’m in El Paso right on the border, so I’m very familiar with the dust storms and the heat. Which parts of the state are going to be hit the worst?
You know, El Paso is not going to be too bad off, because you’re already up there in the mountains, so it’s not particularly unusual weather there.
It looks like the worst area is going to Central Texas, the area around Austin and San Antonio, where actually I guess the most unusual weather is going to be Wednesday, probably the hottest day of the of the period, where we’re actually looking at having some temperatures being about 10 degrees above the all-time records for that date.
So these highest temperatures, will they last into next week?
It’ll gradually taper off. We’re looking for the wind pattern shifting a bit, so we’ll get more air coming from the south, from the Gulf of Mexico, which is humid, but it’s not getting that extra pulse or heat from the mountains; it’s not descending as much.
But that weather pattern’s only gonna change gradually, and so we really do have a week of fairly high temperatures to deal with.
» GET MORE NEWS FROM AROUND THE STATE: Sign up for Texas Standard’s weekly newsletters
We’ve had a wet spring in some parts of Texas so far compared to recent years. Is this the end of it? Is summer happening now?
I hope people realize they had it pretty good the past few weeks with below-normal temperatures. Yeah, it’s a pretty dramatic change from spring to summer happening here within about a 24-hour period.
Part of the reason that South Central Texas is going to be so hot is that they haven’t really enjoyed the wet weather of the spring. We’ve got persistent drought in both the Trans-Pecos region of West Texas out in your direction and also in the southern part of the Hill Country and extending southward toward the lower Valley.
So those areas have an extra bit of weather driving the high temperatures, because when the sun heats the ground and there’s no water to evaporate, it just starts baking.
Well, is this a sign of what’s to come – a summer filled with more record-breaking high temperatures?
Well, I certainly hope not. It’s a little early to tell. The past three summers have all been unusually hot. But the seasonal outlook, although it’s calling for enhanced chance of above normal temperatures, really only has about a 1 in 3 chance at most of being as hot as any of the last three years.
The good news is, not as hot, the bad news is, it’s a new normal, so it’ll still be hotter than it used to be.
What are the risks when it comes to extreme heat? And what should people do to prepare? Because often they’re not prepared this early.
Well, if you’re doing something outdoors, make sure you’ve got plenty of water available and take breaks. Don’t go out hiking this week if you can put it off, that’s for sure.
Also, watch out for sparks that could start fires because the high temperatures will dry out the grass very quickly and things can catch very easily.
