What to make of recent polls – especially the Washington Post survey that showed Clinton ahead of Trump in the reddest of red states?
Shaw says he gets nervous when outside entities reconfigure polls in a way that they think fits with reality.
“My main problem is that it tends to involve a lot of backward reasoning,” he says, “which is – we don’t like the result, therefore there must be something wrong with the internals. People become methodological experts when they find something that they don’t like.”
What you’ll hear in this segment:
– How an entity’s assumption of the racial and class makeup of the electorate this fall can influence how they poll
– Why election polls in the U.S. have been accurate and why polling is increasingly more difficult
– What Shaw looks for when he assesses a poll’s numbers