What will happen to Ted Cruz’s Senate seat if he runs for president?

Rumors of a Cruz presidential run have both Republicans and Democrats eyeballing his seat, which is set to expire in 2024 if he doesn’t run again.

By Rhonda Fanning, David Brown & Glorie MartinezDecember 6, 2022 3:55 pm,

In nearly all of the last 17 presidential cycles, a Texan candidate has made a run for the White House. Coming off of a busy election season, would-be candidates in 2024 are already talking coy about their intentions. According to many politics watchers, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is a likely Republican candidate.

Those rumors have left both Republicans and Democrats eyeballing the junior senator’s seat. Cruz’s term is set to expire in 2024 if he doesn’t run for Senate again.

Longtime Texas political writer Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News writes that a Cruz presidential run has the potential to be a game-changer. He joined the Texas Standard to discuss the implications for Texas’ political scene.

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity:

Texas Standard: How do you see a Cruz candidacy as being a game-changer for Texas?

Gromer Jeffers: Well, in two ways. One, it puts his seat up for grabs, or the notion of his seat being up for grabs. It puts that out there, because his focus would be running for president if that’s what he chose to do. And we all know that he wants to run for president.

Even though he could run for Senate and president at the same time, it still would create a list of contenders, people lining up considering the possibility of Cruz being part of the national ticket. It might embolden some folks to run, even if Cruz does decide to run simultaneously for both offices.

What are Republicans and Democrats saying? Are they mentioning potential candidates who might try to go for Cruz’s Senate seat? 

Well, you know how it goes. Everybody wants to basically resign and run for president. That’s the dream scenario for a lot of Republicans out there because they’re ready to move and do some other things. What happens in Texas?

What we saw under the Rick Perry years and the Greg Abbott years now is that there’s no real movement until somebody leaves. That happened the last time with Kay Bailey Hutchison, because the thought was that Kay Bailey Hutchison will resign and it will create a domino effect. She didn’t, but her seat eventually came up and Ted Cruz ended up running for that.

That’s what people are waiting for this time: somebody to move to create a domino effect that will have other people seeking offices. Now, Ken Paxton has been A.G. for a long time now. He just won his third term. He’s looking for another move, perhaps governor or Senate, if that happens. You got Dan Crenshaw, the representative in Houston, looking for higher office. Most of the statewide folks are looking for other landing spots to continue their political career.

You listed three Republicans there. What about on the Democratic side? 

That’s fascinating as well. Remember in 2018, the last time Cruz ran for re-election, against Beto O’Rourke? 2.6% was the margin of victory for Cruz. So Democrats see Cruz as maybe someone they can beat, that’s not a stronger candidate, say, across the board as a John Cornyn, who could attract moderates and business Republicans. They see an opportunity there, even in Texas, because of what O’Rourke did – maybe they can go for him.

Colin Allred, the U.S. representative up here in Dallas, is considering a Senate run. He’s a business Democrat. So yes, Democrats are looking to see how Cruz polls, and they’ve been looking at it for a few years ever since that close defeat [of] Beto O’Rourke.

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