Sen. John Cornyn is seeing record fundraising ahead of the Republican primary, in which he faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep Wesley Hunt.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said most of that money is coming from institutional interests.
“(It’s from) people who like the job that John Cornyn’s been doing in the Senate, as well as are concerned about the possibility that if Ken Paxton is the nominee, that it could cost Republicans this seat and reduce their already-thin majority in the senate,” Jones said.
“Cornyn definitely needs to outspend his rivals if he’s going to have a chance. One of the issues that he’s running into is that while he’s been spending a lot of money and raising his profile, he’s unable to rise above Ken Paxton by a significant margin.”
Jones said the Cornyn campaign is being the most aggressive when it comes to establishing personal attacks on his opponents.
“It’s going after Ken Paxton by saying because of his marital, financial, professional, legal, and all the host of other difficulties he’s had, that his political baggage makes him a vulnerable candidate in November of 2026,” Jones said. “They aren’t trying to go after him for really anything else because the message that he’s too conservative is not a positive or winning one in the Republican primary.”
» GET MORE NEWS FROM AROUND THE STATE: Sign up for Texas Standard’s weekly newsletters
Meanwhile, the Paxton campaign has signaled that they believe Cornyn’s too moderate, too pragmatic, too willing to compromise with Democrats and unsupportive of Donald Trump, Jones said.
“But they’ve toned that down since Wesley Hunt’s gotten into the race because one thing that Paxton wants to avoid is having to face Wesley Hunt in a near all-but-certain May runoff,” he said.
Ultimately, if the Republican primary does go to a May runoff, Jones said the results might be colored by the results of the Democratic primary.
“If it’s a runoff between Paxton and Cornyn, Paxton will do better if Jasmine Crockett is the Democratic nominee, because the belief among Republicans is that she’s easier to beat in November. On the other hand, Cornyn will do it better if Talarico is the nominee, because there’s a belief that he’s a greater threat to Republicans in November,” Jones said. “And there’s always the possibility that Wesley Hunt could leapfrog Cornyn and get into the runoff against Paxton, in which case he might become, if not the favorite, at least an even-money chance to win.”
On the Democratic side, both Texas Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep Jasmine Crockett are drawing big crowds as they campaign across the state.
“They haven’t gone negative, and that’s one thing that we aren’t seeing on the Democratic side,” Jones said. “Neither Talarico is attacking Crockett, nor Crocket is attacking Talarico. They’re trying to maintain a positive campaign. We’ll see if they’re able to keep that going through the March 3 primary.”
The Democratic candidates have a debate on Jan. 24, which will allow them to speak on the issues that are driving their campaigns. So far, neither has differentiated themselves much in terms of policy, Jones said.
“Both are presenting themselves as sort of a progressive change for Democrats, as well as someone who’s going to fight against Donald Trump and fight against the Republican Party,” he said. “Crockett is coming out as being a little more aggressively anti-Trump. Talarico is trying to present himself as more measured, and someone who is a little bit more focused on issues and relating to average voters.”
