To spend, or not to spend.
That is the question the national Democratic Party faces when it comes to Texas — specifically the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico, and either Sen. John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are in a runoff for the Republican nomination.
The result of that Republican runoff may determine whether Democratic officials give a financial boost to Talarico to help flip the seat in November.
Elena Schneider, a reporter for Politico, spoke to a number of Democratic fundraisers about whether they’ll support Talarico. Listen to the interview in the player above or read the transcript below.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: Why are some Democratic decision-makers not totally sold on Talarico’s ability to pull this off, this Senate race?
Elena Schneider: Look, I have talked to so many Democrats who describe Texas as their great white whale, as the state that they dream of flipping, that they believe they can one day flip, that is trending their way, but it’s just incredibly hard to do.
And look, I think that story has gotten a little more complicated because sort of the dreams of turning Texas blue for Democrats started really during the Obama years when he was so central in getting young voters and voters of color out. That story has been a lot more complicated in the Trump years, who has done far better with voters of color and with young people.
So I think, look, Democrats are looking at Texas pretty warily. They see this runoff and there’s a lot of energy and excitement of Democrats going up against Ken Paxton and their willingness to then invest in this race than it were if Sen. John Cornyn emerged from it.
So there’s like a TBD quality to all of this because I think that they see Paxton as a more easier target to go after.
More vulnerable, I guess, because of some of his much-talked-about indiscretions, as his critics might say.
Exactly. He carries a lot more baggage and might turn off sort of your traditional Republicans and independents who would come out for somebody like John Cornyn.
And I think there’s some real reality here, too, about the broader Senate map, which is that there’s a lot of places where Democrats have to go on offense if they have any prayer of turning the Senate blue this cycle, and there are other places that are cheaper.
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So in a way, they’re having to allocate this money in different places, and they’ve got to figure out, okay, how much of a chance do we really stand in Texas?
Exactly. Look, they already have identified North Carolina and Maine as two states where they know they are going to spend money. Then you sort of go one step out from that.
Alaska and Ohio, where they had really key recruits in those two states, they believe that those are also on the list.
Then do you add Iowa? Do you add Texas? Do add Montana, which just came on? And suddenly that bill at the end of the day gets pretty big…
Speaking of bill, forgive me for interrupting, but how much money might the Democrats be prepared to spend in Texas if we ended up with just throwing it to, let’s say, a Paxton versus Talarico contest.
So I’ve talked to a lot of Democrats who said that it would take in the neighborhood of like $150 to $200 to $250 million. So that’s a big neighborhood.
Oh my gosh.
But that’s the amount of money it would take in a state that is as expensive, as big as Texas. And look, Talarico is a fundraising star. He could do a lot of that himself and could make this competitive all on his own.
But Beto O’Rourke had about $80 million raised and spent for him in 2018. And I think that they would definitely have to surpass that if they wanted to make Texas real.
Elena, as you were talking with Democrats up in D.C., did you get a sense that there’s a difference of opinion on whether or not it’s worth trying to win in Texas?
Yeah, I mean, you’ve got some folks who really do believe that Texas is the future. And if Democrats don’t start investing in places like Texas, they’re going to have big problems in 2032 and onwards in terms of even trying to win the White House.
Because where the future of sort of people are living is not necessarily in Democrats’ core battleground. And if they don’t bring some states online, they are going to be in some real trouble.
And then you’ve got sort of maybe more short-termist thinking in terms of like, we just need to flip the Senate. And if we want to do that, we shouldn’t go chase white whales. We should focus on the states that are cheaper and more competitive.
You know, there was a special election for a state Senate seat here back in January and a Democrat in a district that is considered to be quite red indeed ended up winning by something like 17 points. And a lot of Democrats said, “oh, ha ha, this is the year, this is the year.”
And I think that there may be some Texas Democrats listening to us right now thinking, I hope that Democrats in Washington are paying attention, that we may be seeing a kind of sea change here.
Then again, you have the flip side. There used to be Beto O’Rourke signs all over the state, and it was considered that that would be the year that Texas Democrats flipped.
So I guess we keep asking this. Is this the year, right?
That’s right. I hate to keep going back to this metaphor, but it’s the sort of this elusive whale that they have been chasing in part because of what it offers of the sort of new pathways that might open up for the Democratic Party if they could turn a place like Texas blue in the same way that they were able to turn Georgia blue in 2020. And it really did change the path to 270 for a presidential election.
Texas would be huge if that suddenly became competitive. But as of yet, it still hasn’t moved quite enough. I mean, I think it’s gonna be fascinating who Talarico’s race is up against, but honestly, I think either candidate, either Republican candidate, is gonna be in for a real fight and it will be really, really interesting to see where that margin lands this fall.
