Cracking, packing and power: How Texas’ congressional redistricting could reshape Houston

The congressional redistricting Texas Republicans pushed forward this summer didn’t just reshape two of Houston’s most historically diverse districts: It also changed which voters there have the power to choose who will represent them in Washington.

By Blaise Gainey, The Texas NewsroomNovember 14, 2025 8:48 am,

From The Texas Newsroom:

Congressional redistricting was the big Texas political story of the summer, when the state’s Republican-dominated legislature led an unconventional push to redraw Texas congressional districts years earlier than normal.

State leaders weren’t shy about the goal: giving Texas more Republican-friendly districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections at the request of President Donald Trump.

Texas Democrats responded by walking out, leaving the statehouse at a standstill. When they returned, state lawmakers pushed through a new map which could give the GOP as many as five new seats from Texas in the U.S. House. Those five seats are a big deal since Republicans already hold 25 of the state’s 38 spots in the chamber.

Whether the new congressional map will be used in 2026 midterms is still tied up in court. A lawsuit seeking to block it is currently being considered by a panel of federal judges in El Paso, who heard the case last month. The plaintiffs allege illegal racial gerrymandering, while the state argues its motivation was purely partisan — and therefore, legal.

How the three-judge panel rules could ultimately determine whether Democrats or Republicans hold control of the U.S. House after next November’s elections.The court decision will be especially impactful in Houston, where redistricting shifted which voters in several key districts hold the power when it comes to choosing who represents them in Washington.

Houston, we have a problem

Greater Houston saw some of the biggest changes to district lines in Texas’ new congressional map, especially in Houston’s 9th and 18th districts. In fact, they were among four districts specifically targeted by the Trump administration earlier this year.

In July, the Department of Justice sent a letter to Governor Abbott saying the state could face a lawsuit if it didn’t redraw lines to eliminate these “unconstitutional racial gerrymanders.” Three of the four districts the DOJ listed were in the Houston area, and all were seats most recently held by Democrats of color.

According to the Justice Department, these were “coalition districts that were in violation of a recent federal court decision,” Michael Adams, a political science professor at Texas Southern University in Houston, told The Texas Newsroom.

These types of “opportunity” districts, said Adams, are drawn to ensure minority voters get a fair chance to send a candidate of their choice to Washington.

The letter, along with Trump’s request for more Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation, sparked Texas’ redistricting push — a push that left district lines in Houston significantly altered.

“What all of this tells me is that those who are part of the ruling party are afraid,” said Karen Kossie-Chernyshev, a professor of history at TSU in Houston. “They’re afraid of the power of the black vote. They’re afraid of the power of the brown vote. They really are. And so they are going out of their way to dilute that vote.”

‘A classic case’: Packing the 18th

In the state’s new map, Houston’s Congressional District 18 got a drastic facelift.

The district has long been a Democratic stronghold. In 1972, voters there sent Barbara Jordan, the first black congresswoman from Texas, to Washington. Since then, only African Americans have represented the 18th.

Under the state’s new congressional map, that will likely continue. The district used to be 34% Black. After redistricting, that percentage increases to just under 45%.

While that may not seem like a huge change, redistricting critics say it will ultimately dilute voting power. It’s “a classic case of what you call cracking and packing,” said Adams.

In redistricting terms, packing is when voting districts are drawn to minimize the true voting power of a certain demographic by constraining them to as few districts as possible. Plaintiffs in the lawsuit against the new map also cite TX-18 as an example of packing.

The rearrangement has an even larger impact on who can run in the district. Congressman Al Green, the Democrat who represents neighboring TX-9, recently announced he would be running for reelection in the new TX-18 instead. That’s because redistricting drew Green out of his district, nullifying any chance of him running for reelection there in 2026.

“It was done with intentionality and it was done, in part, because of who I am,” Green told The Texas Newsroom. “As you know, the President and I don’t exchange Christmas cards.”

Green has long been an outspoken critic of President Trump and believes that is another reason Republicans moved the lines around the district he’s been representing for two decades.

‘They’re basically screwed’: Cracking the 9th

Texas’ 9th Congressional District changed even more dramatically, both demographically and geographically. According to Adams, some “97% of the people were moved out of that district if you look at the new map.”

The district had contained a large swath of the southwest Houston area. Now, its boundaries have moved to include the eastern portion of the city and all of neighboring Liberty County — a much more rural and white area that has traditionally voted Republican.

TX-9 was also considered a coalition district and consistently elected Democrats. Looking at the district’s new composition, it appears minorities still have a solid hold on the district. Before redistricting, the 9th was 78% Black and Hispanic. In the redrawn district, that number drops to 72%.

But experts say it’s not that simple.

“The population numbers look [like] well, Hispanics could win this,” said University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray. But, he added, “When you bear down, and look at who’s registered, who votes — No.”

Murray has been testifying as an expert witness in redistricting cases since the 1970s and was called by the plaintiffs in Texas’ redistricting case. He told The Texas Newsroom that minorities in the new TX-9 are “basically screwed” when it comes to voting power.

“In population, it’s a majority Hispanic. But that population includes a lot of people who are under 18. Hispanics tend to be younger,” Murray said, adding the district now includes larger numbers of undocumented persons who do not register and vote in Texas.”

Murray said the newly drawn district also includes some majority Hispanic Houston neighborhoods that have historically low voter turnout.

Given all that, and that Liberty County voted for Trump 4 to 1 in 2024, this once solid Democratic district will likely vote Republican in 2026.

Beyond that, whether a Republican or Democrat goes on to represent TX-9, TSU’s Kossie-Chernyshev says it won’t be easy representing the radically redrawn congressional district that stretches from the city to the countryside.

“The learning curve is gonna be there for whomever is elected,” she said. “There are going to be certain areas that they may be less familiar with that they’re going to have to become more familiar with.”

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